Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
BARBIE, from left: Margot Robbie, Alexandra Shipp, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, America Ferrera, 2023. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 24, 2023): With the news of Warner Bros’ delaying Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune Part Two” until 2024, the greatest benefactor of the move is Universal Pictures’ “Oppenheimer” from writer and director Christopher Nolan.
The first “Dune” walked away with six technical Oscars — production design, cinematography, film editing, sound, visual effects and original score. Based on the trailer and early buzz, the second installment would be very competitive (perhaps even more) in those same spaces. With “Oppenheimer,” another technical marvel, it will likely have an easy path in garnering tons of artisan support. Once you start looking like a front-runner in those below-the-line categories, the film becomes very competitive to win the Academy’s most coveted prize.
Of course, it still has to compete with other potential contenders coming down the pike, such as Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Netflix’s “Maestro” and perhaps even its summer box office rival, “Barbie.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
- Listed producer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi - “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan - “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie - “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner - “Ferrari” (Neon)
Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West - “Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon - “May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon - “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson - “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg - “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
Next in Line
- “Maestro” (Netflix)
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- “Air” (Amazon Studios)
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- “The Killer” (Netflix)
- “Rustin” (Netflix)
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
- “The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- “El Conde” (Netflix)
Also In Contention
- “Priscilla” (A24)
- “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- “Nyad” (Netflix)
- “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
- “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “American Fiction” (MGM)
- “Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.